Escalating conflict leads to rising population in need of food assistance

Key Messages

• The intensifying conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon continues to drive internal displacement and disrupt the livelihoods of households remaining in their homes, especially in southern Lebanon and Beirut. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are becoming more widespread, and FEWS NET assesses the population in need of urgent humanitarian food assistance has risen to 2.0-2.5 million people (approximately 35-40 percent of the country’s population). In South Lebanon, El Nabatieh, Baalbak-El Hermel, Akkar, and North Lebanon governorates, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through at least January. In Beirut, Mount Lebanon, and Beqaa governorates, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through at least January; within these governorates, there are households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 
• Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah escalated on September 18-19 following the wireless device explosions and subsequent assassination of seven high-ranking Hezbollah members, including the group’s longtime leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. On September 23, airstrikes targeting Hezbollah in Beirut’s southern suburbs killed 492 people, including many civilians, the highest number of casualties in a single day since 2006; additional airstrikes also targeted Beirut’s city limits. Since then, attacks have intensified in the southern suburbs of the capital. 
• Simultaneous to the air strikes in Beirut, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) began conducting a ground invasion into South Lebanon. Thus far, the invasion has targeted 20 towns and villages across South Lebanon supported by artillery shelling and aerial bombardment. Most households have fled frontline border villages (within 10 km of the Blue Line), with the highest proportion of internally displaced persons (IDPs) residing in safer areas of Beirut and Baabda, according to the Food Security Cluster. 
• The conflict is causing civilian causalities and large-scale population displacement due to the destruction of residential buildings and civilian infrastructure, including health centers, by the IDF. Lebanon’s Health Ministry reported on September 30 that more than 1,000 people have been killed and 6,000 have been wounded over the last two weeks, raising the death toll to nearly 1,800 since October 2023. Estimates of the number of displaced vary. The IOM estimates approximately 346,000 IDPs, with approximately 142,000 registered IDPs in 711 collective shelters, at the end of September. This represents a 64 percent increase in IDPs since 26 September, the majority of whom originated from the districts along the southern border of Lebanon. Food Security Cluster partners assess a much higher level of displacement than the IOM, with around 1 million displaced in late September​. 
• While many IDPs are sheltering with host families and nearly 158,500 individuals are registered in 801 shelters, hundreds of displaced households have resorted to sheltering outside of collective shelters in public squares, beaches, or cars. In addition, many displaced families in collective shelters are still unregistered and have not been accounted for in official estimates. Meanwhile, more than 100,000 people – both Syrian refugees and Lebanese nationals – have crossed into Syria in late September to escape Israeli bombardment, namely in the border town of Baalbek and eastern Beqaa valley.
• Across Lebanon, current and anticipated food supply chain disruptions are driving households to stockpile food and essentials amid rising prices of bread and other staple commodities. While southern Lebanon and Beirut are bearing the brunt of the conflict, market functionality is currently severely compromised in Beqaa and Baalbak-El Hermel. In the last week of September, the most significant spikes in prices were reported in Bekaa, El Nabatieh, South Lebanon, Baalbak-El Hermel, and the southern suburbs of Beirut. On average, the price of bread rose by 12.7 percent from the first to fourth week of September, while the total cost of the food survival minimum expenditure basket increased by 2.7 percent. The end of the World Bank’s wheat subsidy – which was part of a $150 million emergency loan provided in May 2022 aimed at keeping bread prices affordable and ensuring a steady wheat supply amid Lebanon’s economic crisis – is expected to further exacerbate the situation. As of September 26, the price of a large pack of Lebanese bread rose further to LL65,000 LPB in bakeries and even further to 77,000 LBP in retail stores and supermarkets. 
• The limited scale of food assistance delivery amid ongoing efforts to mobilize and raise more funds has left many households unassisted in September, especially outside of collective shelters. In and around Beirut, approximately 125,000 individuals in 280 shelters received food parcels and ready-to-eat kits during the last week of September in addition to the daily distribution of hot and cold meals and bread packs. Among these recipients, ration sizes are large enough to prevent food consumption deficits and they likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. However, households not living in shelters who have not received assistance face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. To urgently address rising needs, WFP has launched an emergency operation to provide food assistance for up to one million conflict-affected people through a combination of cash and food support to shelter across the country. Additionally, according to OCHA, 20 million USD of Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) allocation and Lebanon Humanitarian Fund (LHF) reserve allocation are being deployed to address the urgent needs of displaced and affected populations. Meanwhile, a United Nations Flash Appeal is in the final stages of preparation to further bolster response efforts. 
• Outside of the areas that are the most heavily affected by conflict, including the North Lebanon, Baalbak-El Hermel, and Akkar governorates, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist due to long-term factors. The protracted economic crisis since 2019 has driven high rates of multidimensional poverty among Syrian refugees and Lebanese host populations, who face greater difficulty earning sufficient income to cope with high food prices. High competition over income-earning opportunities continues to restrict access to typical income sources amid reduced humanitarian assistance. Additionally, funding shortfalls and the rising scale of need across the country left thousands of poor Lebanese households in the north unassisted in September. 
• There is a high degree of uncertainty about how the regional conflict will develop in the coming weeks and months. In a credible, alternative scenario in which IDF troops move northward to the Litani River and strikes intensify, FEWS NET anticipates Crisis (IPC Phase 3) area-level outcomes would expand to Beirut, Mount Lebanon, and Beqaa governorates, and a growing share of the population would likely deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The scale of population displacement would increase, especially within southern Lebanon, Beirut, and Beqaa. Significantly higher food price increases would be likely due to broader economic turmoil, characterized by indirect disruptions to food import flows – which account for over 85 percent of domestic food needs – amid the rising costs of doing business, limited foreign exchange revenue, and foreign funding, and constrained government response capacity. The combination of increased demand and disrupted supply would likely also strain market functionality, making it increasingly difficult for households to access sufficient food at a time when sources of income will also be increasingly disrupted by conflict.